According to Nate Silver’s 2009 PECOTA projections, the Oakland A’s will win the American League West with….82 wins? [Update – Seitz provides some great perspective in the comments…thanks.]



Filed under The Angels

4 responses to “PECOTA Wins

  1. So the Blue Jays face the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays 19 times each, and still give up 66 fewer runs than the Angels? Whatever.

    Nate’s a friend of mine, and he’s not biased against the Angels, but PECOTA under-predicts the Angels pretty much every single year.

    • 3daysofcryin

      Yeah, we’ve been having some fun, over the last month, with the notion that Angel winning is always a matter of “luck.” Modern baseball analysis just doesn’t have any room to love the Angels.

  2. FWIW,

    ’03 Angels: 82 PECOTA, 80 Pythag, 77 actual
    ’04 Angels: 82 PECOTA, 91 Pythag, 92 actual
    ’05 Angels: 83 PECOTA, 93 Pythag, 95 actual
    ’06 Angels: 81 PECOTA, 84 Pythag, 89 actual
    ’07 Angels: 86 PECOTA, 90 Pythag, 94 actual
    ’08 Angels: 85 PECOTA, 88 Pythag, 100 actual

    PECOTA annually underpredicts the Angels by 8 wins per season. 10-11 if you throw out 2003.

  3. Pingback: Second-place Angels? - Angels blog -

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s