According to Nate Silver’s 2009 PECOTA projections, the Oakland A’s will win the American League West with….82 wins? [Update – Seitz provides some great perspective in the comments…thanks.]
Filed under The Angels
Tagged as Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
So the Blue Jays face the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays 19 times each, and still give up 66 fewer runs than the Angels? Whatever.
Nate’s a friend of mine, and he’s not biased against the Angels, but PECOTA under-predicts the Angels pretty much every single year.
Yeah, we’ve been having some fun, over the last month, with the notion that Angel winning is always a matter of “luck.” Modern baseball analysis just doesn’t have any room to love the Angels.
’03 Angels: 82 PECOTA, 80 Pythag, 77 actual
’04 Angels: 82 PECOTA, 91 Pythag, 92 actual
’05 Angels: 83 PECOTA, 93 Pythag, 95 actual
’06 Angels: 81 PECOTA, 84 Pythag, 89 actual
’07 Angels: 86 PECOTA, 90 Pythag, 94 actual
’08 Angels: 85 PECOTA, 88 Pythag, 100 actual
PECOTA annually underpredicts the Angels by 8 wins per season. 10-11 if you throw out 2003.
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